Think in cycles
Separate short-term volatility from the long-term forces that shape markets across decades.
Writing began in 2011 • Published in 2013
Dow 85,000.
Aim Higher.
More than a number, it was a case for thinking in decades—not headlines—and recognizing the power of secular market cycles.
The 2030 target
85,000
A long-range thesis, not a straight line
Published2013
Writing began2011 · Dow ~10,000
Forecast horizon2030
AuthorsMarshall & Trent Schield
01
The original argument
The market moves in long cycles.
“The decade of poor performance is behind us.”
After a difficult decade for stocks, the book argued that a new secular bull market had begun—one that could persist through multiple cyclical advances, corrections and bear markets.
The point was never that markets would travel upward without interruption. The point was to recognize the larger cycle, stay invested with discipline and seek ways to participate more fully while respecting risk.
The journey so far
A bold forecast.
A measurable destination.
Marshall and Trent began writing in 2011, with the Dow around 10,000. The book was published in 2013. As a historical reference, the Dow closed at 10,655.30 on October 3, 2011. By September 2, 2026, it had reached 53,061.95.
Starting market reference: October 3, 2011 close, 10,655.30 (Reuters). This reference date is not the exact writing start date. Latest displayed market figure: September 2, 2026.
2011 reference2030 target
10,65553,062 202685,000
Progress from 2011 reference
57.0%
02
The enduring idea
Why “Aim Higher” still matters.
Respect compounding
Participation in advancing markets and disciplined risk management can matter more than any single forecast.
Expect setbacks
A secular bull contains corrections and cyclical bears. Progress is powerful precisely because it is not linear.
Refuse average thinking
The challenge of the book was simple: understand the opportunity, build a process and aim higher.
Dow 85,000 and Beyond • Living Well & Legacy Wealth
Dow 85,000
and Beyond.
AIM Higher! • A 21st-Century Retirement Strategy
AIM Higher! explores the Adaptive Index Model — a rules-based approach designed to adapt market exposure across market cycles and secular markets.
The book connects the original Dow 85,000 thesis to the signals, model rules and historical research behind a changing approach to market exposure.
Explore the book and modelThe destination remains ahead
The next chapter is still being written.
Return to the thesis. Measure it honestly. Learn from every cycle. And keep aiming higher.
Back to the beginning