Maximum model exposure when the MEI is bullish at the stated threshold.
Living Well & Legacy Wealth • A 21st-Century Retirement Strategy
Dow 85,000
and Beyond.
AIM Higher! explores the Adaptive Index Model — a rules-based approach designed to adapt market exposure across market cycles and secular markets.
Dow 85,000 and Beyond • AIM Higher!
What if “time in the market” isn’t the whole story? “The Trend is your Friend.” AIM turns that familiar adage into a framework for changing exposure in stages.
01
The central idea
An index becomes a strategy.
The book presents AIM as a rules-based approach designed to adapt market exposure as trends change — seeking to preserve capital in falling markets and enhance participation in rising ones.
At full exposure, the AIM Index rule set describes a 60% Nasdaq-100 and 40% S&P 500 allocation. Four tactical tools help the model adjust across secular and cyclical markets.
Exposure is a dial, not a switch.
A dynamic range
Exposure can adapt with the trend.
Rather than a single buy-or-sell signal, AIM describes four staged levels: 0%, 50%, 100% and 200%. The exact implementation depends on the strategy and its risk limits.
Full exposure when stronger trend confirmation is present.
Partial exposure when an ETS or CTS signal is positive.
Money-market positioning when no quantitative signals are positive.
Exposure levels are illustrative descriptions from the working manuscript, not a recommendation. Leveraged exposure magnifies gains and losses and may not be appropriate for all investors.
The tactical toolkit
Four signals behind the framework.
ETS · Early Trade Signal
An earlier indication of a developing market trend.
CTS · Confirmed Trend Signal
Confirmation of a new market trend.
Market Pulse
Market Pulse with MEI rising adds another layer of confirmation.
MEI · Market Environment Indicator
The model’s broader market-environment gauge.
Secular perspective
Think in decades.
Act within cycles.
Secular markets
Long structural periods that establish the larger direction of the market.
Cyclical markets
Shorter advances and declines that create both risk and opportunity inside the larger trend.
The evidence
A long-cycle case for adaptation.
The manuscript evaluates AIM across secular bears, secular bulls, cyclical markets and rolling periods. These annualized figures are cited in the manuscript; past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Secular bear
March 24, 2000 – October 3, 2011
- AIM Index
- 18.17%
- S&P 500
- −1.11%
- Nasdaq-100
- −6.67%
Following secular bull
October 3, 2011 – June 30, 2026
- AIM Index
- 34.47%
- S&P 500
- 15.95%
- Nasdaq-100
- 20.94%
AIM Index figures may reflect hypothetical or back-tested model results, not an investor’s account. The figures presented do not specify fees, dividends, leverage costs or calculation conventions. Greater exposure can increase losses and drawdowns.
A guided tour
Inside the book
From market-cycle fundamentals to the AIM rule set, performance tests, outlook and lessons learned.
- 01Primer on Secular Market Cycles
Why long market regimes matter across decades.
- 02Cyclical Markets
Shorter bull and bear phases within larger secular markets.
- 03AIM Higher Perspective
The case for dynamic allocation.
- 04Adaptive Index Model Tactical Tools
ETS, CTS, Market Pulse and MEI.
- 05The AIM Index Rule Set
Operating rules for four exposure levels and index allocation.
- 06The Litmus Test
Evaluating AIM over complete market cycles.
- 07Getting Started
Rolling returns, signal examples and a gradual approach.
- 08Dow 85,000 on Target, and Possibly Too Low
Revisiting the long-term market thesis.
- 0910 Bagger?
Exploring a Dow 110,000 possibility, not a guarantee.
- 10Lessons Learned
Discipline, adaptation, activity and time.
- 11Interview
A conversation with Troy Schield.
- 12About the Authors
The people and research behind the book.
Own the book
Dow 85,000 and Beyond.
AIM Higher!
Explore the authors’ market-cycle philosophy, Adaptive Index Model, quantitative signals, historical tests and long-term perspective.
Trent Schield & Marshall Schield
Living Well & Legacy Wealth • A 21st-Century Retirement Strategy
Purchase link will be added when the book is ready.